Now that we are five weeks into the season, I think it’s time to start reassessing the conventional wisdom.
Regular readers know that I always trust established track records over small sample sizes, and I try best never to overreact, but it is important to remember that each NFL season is its own unique being. Thus, while I’m not ready to jump off the Matt Schaub bandwagon yet, I think it’s okay to not consider him a must start anymore. The same is true for DeAngelo Williams, who has seen the awful Carolina offense torpedo his value.
Week 6 is also important because every is back from suspension. We got to see the impact of Brian Cushing (minimal) and Santanio Holmes (not huge, but flashes of potential), and this week we get to see Ben Roethlisberger back under center for Pittsburgh. And as a Mike Wallace owner, let me just exalt…Halalujah!
Does Big Ben show up in this week’s start/sit? Let’s take a quick look back at last week’s hits and misses, then find out.
- Start ‘em hits: Eli Manning, Brandon Pettigrew, Chicago Bears D
- Start ‘em misses: Jamaal Charles & Thomas Jones,
- Sit ‘em hits: Carson Palmer, Dwayne Bowe, LaDainian Tomlinson
- Sit ‘em misses: Washington D, Jason Witten
* – Mark Clayton was my start ‘em WR but was injured early in the Rams’ loss to Detroit.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Start em Sit Em Projections
Note: The Cardinals, Bills, Panthers, and Bengals are off this week.
Remember: Everything is relative. Just because I say “start” Big Ben, doesn’t mean I’d play him over Peyton Manning. It just means that, in general, I think he is worth starting this week more than the conventional wisdom might suggest.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Start ‘em QB: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (vs Cleveland)
Wait, what?
But Jerod, how can you recommend Ben Roethlisberger? Not only do you hate him, it goes against your tenet of wanting to let a player coming off a layoff play a week before trusting him. What gives?
Here’s what gives:
- 187 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
- 371 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT
- 262 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT
- 182 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Those are the last four games against the Cleveland Browns. Based on that, you can reasonably expect 200+ yards and 2 TDs from Big Ben. I also like the fact that the game is in Pittsburgh and that Ben had the bye week to get himself re-acclimated. Remember, the Steelers threw the ball all around the field last year. Mike Wallace and Hines Ward have to be licking their chops to have a guy under center who can deliver the ball consistently.
I don’t think Roethlisberger sets the world on fire, but I think he’ll be solid. Considering some of the matchups some of the elite QBs have (see below), Roethlisberger might not be a bad option for many of you.
Ben Roethlisberger fantasy football Week 5 projection: 225 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT
Other start ‘em QBs for Week 5:
- Start Peyton Manning. Always. There’s been a lot of panic this season about different guys and Peyton struggled a bit last week, so I don’t want to see anyone do anything irrational like starting Shaun Hill over either of these guys. Don’t me myopic folks.
- Keep Eli Manning in your lineup. Yes, he’ll throw INTs, but he usually takes advantage of decent matchups. He threw 3 TDs last week and I think he’ll throw 2-3 more this week against the Lions.
- Tony Romo has thrown at least one TD pass in every week since Week 4 of last year. That’s consistency. Plus, the Cowboys will have to throw against a pretty solid Minnesota run D.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Sit ‘em QB: Tom Brady, New England (vs Baltimore)
I still like Tom Brady long-term this season. Really, I do. I’m just very nervous about starting him this week if you have a decent alternative.
First off, Brady is without Randy Moss. While I think the Patriots can adjust to this and still succeed as a team without Randy, I simply cannot devise an argument to say that it will do anything but hurt Brady’s fantasy value. Brady has 9 TD passes on the season and 3 of them are to Moss, and there is no telling how much Moss’ presence contributed to the other six.
Secondly, Brady has a tough matchup. Baltimore has been the best team against the pass all season (with most of Denver’s aerial work last week coming with the game already decided). Remember what happened in the playoffs last year? New England, with Moss, got throttled by the Ravens. Not that much has changed since then except that Moss is no longer there.
Add it all up, and this screams “sit” to me. Considering the matchup, I’d feel much more comfortable being able to sit Brady for a week and watch their new-look offense plays out.
Tom Brady fantasy football Week 5 projection: 230 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT
Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 5:
- It’s probably time to slow down the Sam Bradford train just a bit. I still like him, but losing Mark Clayton hurts and the offensive struggles against Detroit are a red flag. Playing against San Diego isn’t a great matchup
- I know that Chad Henne has thrown for a lot of the yards the last couple of weeks, but I expect the Dolphins to start running the ball more. Miami plays Green Bay next week, which isn’t an awful matchup, but consider this more of a lack of faith in Henne right now.
- Kansas City has been great defensively this season, most recently frustrating the hell out of the great Peyton Manning. After Houston dropped a turn against New York, my faith in Matt Schaub is a bit shaken. In most cases I’d still start him, but think twice about it if you have a really good alternative.
- I know the Matt Cassel is going up against Houston’s secondary, which means he could have a decent game, but I still don’t trust him. Don’t try to get too smart here. Cassel has been terrible. He’s not a good start unless you’re desperate (in which case he’s an okay option simply because of the potential the opposing defense provides with its suckiness).
Fantasy Football Week 6 Start ‘em RB: Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants (vs Detroit)
Bradshaw plays Detroit, which held St. Louis’ improved offense to six points in Week 5. Don’t be fooled. The Rams were still able to run the ball on the Lions, with Steven Jackson racking up 114 yards. The Rams just couldn’t score and didn’t have a good enough passing game to balance out the offense.
Bradshaw won’t have to worry about that as Eli Manning got into sync with both Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith last week. And Bradshaw ran well himself, despite not getting into the end zone. He had 67 yards on 16 carries and also caught 3 balls for 22 more yards. That’s solid. I expect he can add a TD to that kind of production in Week 6.
Ahmad Bradshaw fantasy football Week 6 projection: 85 yards rushing, 35 yards receiving, 1 TD
Other start ‘em RBs for Week 6:
- Way too many people continue to treat Michael Turner like he’s not an automatic start. He is. Start him. Start whoever is playing RB for the Falcons.
- Ray Rice is back. I like him against New England next week too. But you don’t need me to tell you that…
- Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams get Green Bay’s injury-depleted defense in Week 6. Sure, the Packers shut down Ryan Torain last week, but I think Miami goes back to the run after two straight losses. And they can run on anyone when they commit to it. Get both of these guys back in your lineup.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Sit ‘em RB: Peyton Hillis, Cleveland (at Pittsburgh)
Peyton Hillis has been outstanding this year. He really has. In fact, he’s been a revelation and is the kind of guy that wins you fantasy leagues because you didn’t have to draft him to get his production.
That said, I don’t like him at all against the Steelers.
Not only will Pittsburgh be buoyed by the return of Ben Roethlisberger, but they are at home, coming off the bye, ranked #1 in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (62.2), and the Browns have no passing offense to take pressure off of Hillis. Oh, and Colt McCoy is probably going to be starting at QB for Cleveland.
Ouch. That’s a lot of negative indicators.
Now look, don’t sit Hillis for someone who will only get 10-12 touches, but I’d sit him for most starting running backs. It’s just not a good matchup at all.
Peyton Hillis fantasy football Week 6 projection: 45 yards rushing, 25 yards receiving, 0 TDs
Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 6:
- Thomas Jones had a great Week 5 matchup against Indy…and responded with 19 yards on 8 carries. In Week 6 he faces the stiff Houston run defense. I’m not a big fan of that matchup.
- I’m not high on any Cowboys’ running backs, as you know. I’m definitely not high on them against the Vikings. I’ve been burned by Felix Jones too many times to trust one game of 15+ carries as the start of a trend. Talk to me when it happens two weeks in a row.
- The Bears held a really strong Panthers running game in check in Week 5. Seattle rarely plays well on the road, so I don’t think the Marshawn Lynch-Justin Forsett combo gets off to a great start.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Start ‘em WR: Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh (vs Cleveland)
Boy oh boy, if Cleveland ends up shutting out the Steelers, I sure am going to look like a fool huh? I’m going all in, naming Big Ben my start ‘em QB and now naming Wallace my start ‘em WR. It just seems to me like everything points to this being the right call.
Wallace really came into his own last year as a rookie with Roethlisberger airing the ball out to him. And the Browns have been prone to giving up big plays in the passing game this year. Wallace is the Steelers’ deep threat and you just know that Ben will want to air it out in his first game back.
Wallace is always going to be a hit or miss type guy. He’ll rarely catch more than 3-4 passes so he needs to get into the end zone to make it count. I’m going to be bold and say he gets into the end zone twice in Week 6.
(Full disclosure: Wallace had 4 catches for 61 yards in two games against Cleveland last year. I know that. I understand that. I also say it doesn’t matter in Week 6. The Browns were much better against the pass last year than they’ve been this year.)
Mike Wallace fantasy football Week 5 projections: 4 catches 90 yards, 2 TDs
Other start ‘em WRs for Week 6:
- Mike Williams just keeps getting it done for Tampa Bay. I can only hold out for so long. A matchup against New Orleans isn’t bad. It’s time to start finding a place for this guy in your lineups.
- Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith are always in my top 20 WRs and should be in your starting lineups most weeks. This is especially true against the Lions.
- Roy Williams caught another touchdown in Week 5. That makes three on the year. I think Dallas has to throw the ball to beat Minnesota, and Tony Romo always throws at least one TD. If it doesn’t go to Miles Austin, chances are it’s Williams’.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Sit ‘em WR: Brandon Tate, New England (vs Baltimore)
I am going for symmetry with this week’s picks. I paired up a QB and a WR for the start ‘em picks, and not I’m doing it with the sit ‘em picks.
Brandon Tate is a hot name right now as the expected heir apparent for Randy Moss in New England. And while I think Tate certainly has some value, he is still a guy who has not caught an NFL TD, who averages only 12.3 yards per catch, and who has never had more than 4 catches or 39 yards in a game.
Considering that he and the Patriots are facing Baltimore’s D, I’d much prefer to wait a week and see how the Patriots’ passing game looks before trusting one of my spots to a guy with a hot name but very little production to back it up.
Brandon Tate fantasy football Week 5 projection: 4 receptions, 50 yards, 0 TDs
Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 6:
- I’m worried about the Denver receivers, especially Brandon Lloyd. He’s been so good every week this year, and something tells me that the Jets will do everything in their power to take him out of the game. Call it a hunch. And remember, my hunch was that you should start him last week against Baltimore’s #1 ranked pass D…and he did great.
- All Chicago and Carolina wide receivers are sits until further notice. Once Jay Cutler gets back, you can consider Bears WRs again. For now, sit, sit, sit.
- I’ve been high on Louis Murphy, but that’s two bad weeks in a row. I think it’s time to sit him until further notice and he proves he’s healthy and that the Raiders’ passing game can produce again.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Start ‘em TE: Chris Cooley, Washington (vs Indianapolis)
Chris Cooley has clearly become a favorite of Donovan McNabb. He has two TDs through the season’s first five games and has only been below 50 yards receiving once. Cooley won’t give you Gates/Clark explosiveness, but he makes up for it with consistency.
Indianapolis gave up 4 receptions for 50 yards to Tony Moeaki in Week 5, and Kansas City doesn’t have what anyone would call a good offense. McNabb may not be throwing a lot of TDs, but they are chucking it around the field pretty well. I assume the Redskins will be down, and that means McNabb will need to throw. Cooley should be the beneficiary.
Chris Cooley fantasy football Week 6 projection: 6 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em TEs for Week 6:
- Brandon Pettigrew had another solid outing in Week 5. Keep him in your lineups.
- Marcedes Lewis scored another TD in Week 5. He continues to produce, and even though it was against Buffalo, I can’t keep telling you to sit someone with 5 TDs in 5 weeks. Maybe Lewis is finally coming into his own this season.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Sit ‘em TE: Todd Heap, Baltimore (at New England)
People still think Todd Heap circa 2010 is Todd Heap circa 2007. Unfortunately he’s not. Heap had just one catch in Week 5 and only has one week in which he’s been over 50 yards receiving this year. He also doesn’t have a TD.
I think the Baltimore passing offense will be able to have a decent day against New England, but I don’t have much faith in Heap in being able to end his TD drought. And if he’s not scoring TDs, he doesn’t rack up enough catches or yards to have as much value as another option.
Todd Heap fantasy football Week 6 projection: 3 receptions, 35 yards, 0 TD
Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 6:
- I’m still keeping Owen Daniels on the bench. Don’t get impatient. Let him do something productive first.
- Jason Witten finally scored a TD last week, but that’s only 7 TDs in his last 40 games. The odds are he won’t do it two straight weeks and Minnesota did a pretty good job of bottling up the red hot Dustin Keller in Week 5.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Start ‘em D/ST: Chicago Bears (vs Seattle)
Chicago has one of the best defenses in football this year. A healthy Brian Urlacher will do that to your defense. And this week the Bears get the Seahawks at Soldier Field. If there is one thing we know about Seattle, it’s that they are nowhere near as good on the road as they are at home. I expect Julius Peppers and Urlacher to take full advantage.
Chicago Bears fantasy football Week 6 projection: 13 or less points, 3 or more sacks, 2 or more TOs
Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 6:
- The Steelers against the Browns. Hopefully you didn’t need me to tell you that.
- The Giants’ pass rush is back to being its ferocious self. A week after holding down Houston’s offense, I think they are a good play against Detroit.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Sit ‘em D/ST: New England Patriots (vs Baltimore)
Don’t let the Patriots’ Week 4 performance fool you. While they were able to kill the Dolphins on special teams, this still is not a great defense. Baltimore sliced them and diced them in the playoffs last year, and I think they can do it against this year.
The Ravens will not be taken by surprise on special teams this week. They’ll have an answer for whatever the Pats did to the Dolphins last week. Remember that John Harbaugh was a special teams coach before he was a head coach.
New England Patriots fantasy football Week 6 projection: 21 or more points, 2 or fewer sacks, 1 or fewer TOs, no special teams TDs
Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 6:
- Philadelphia faces Atlanta’s consistent offense. You can find better options.
- Tennessee’s D did not look particularly good against the Cowboys and has been prone to some big plays this year. They go on the road to Jacksonville next week, where the Jags play their best football.
As always, the comment section sits patiently below for you to ask any and all start/sit questions. I get to them as fast as I’m able. Good luck in Week 6 everyone! Crunch time is getting close, so don’t take these middle weeks for granted.