Well, Week 3 was a lot like Week 1.
My top-line start ‘em, sit ‘em picks didn’t fare so well, but my secondary picks and Q&A recommendations were mostly solid.
Let’s hope this bad week followed by good week trend continues with the top-line choices in Week 4. I have a lot of making up to do to Joe Flacco and Mike Wallace owners…
Here is the carnage:
- Start ‘em hits: Tony Romo, Dustin Keller
- Start ‘em misses: Dez Bryant (so close on this one!), New England
- Sit ‘em hits: Kellen Winslow
- Sit ‘em misses: Joe Flacco, All Dallas RBs (Barber had a solid day), Mike Wallace (HUGE miss), Philly D
(Note: I recommended Knowshon Moreno but he injured his hamstring and was inactive for Sunday.)
Update: This week’s Fantasy Football 3-2-1 video has been posted:
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Now onto the Week 4 picks.
Remember that the Cowboys, Chiefs, Vikings, and Buccaneers all have their byes in Week 4.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Picks
Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em QB: Matt Ryan, ATL (vs SF)
It’s time to start taking Matt Ryan seriously as a #1 fantasy QB. Here are his stats the last two weeks:
- Week 2: 225 yards, 3 TDs (vs Arizona)
- Week 3: 228 yards, 2 TDs (vs New Orleans)
In Week 4, Ryan has a nice matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, a team that supposedly had a good defense. Well, after being torched by Matt Hasselbeck (2 TDs) in Week 1 and then by Drew Brees in Week 2 (2 TDs), Matt Cassel threw 3 TDs in Week 3. Keep in mind, Cassel had been terrible coming into this game.
The 49ers may play well because at 0-3 their backs will be against the wall, but Ryan is proving that he, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez are one of the most potent QB-WR-TE trios in the NFL. It’s time to start getting him in your lineup regularly.
Matt Ryan fantasy football Week 4 projection: 230 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs
Other start ‘em QBs for Week 4:
- Tom Brady has another seemingly tough matchup against the Dolphins. After throwing multiple TDs versus the Jets and Bills, two very good pass defenses, it’s time to understand that Brady never comes out of your lineup.
- The Eagles’ D in 2010 is not what we’ve come to expect. I think Donovan McNabb will have a nice day in his return to Philly.
- The New York Giants are not very good right now, especially on defense. Jay Cutler should be able to take advantage.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em QB: Carson Palmer, CIN (at Cleveland)
You may have seen Joe Flacco light up the Cleveland Browns and think that Carson Palmer might be a good option against them in Week 4. If you think this, I disagree with you.
It’s not that the Browns are great against the pass, they aren’t. They’re just okay. Truth be told, Anquan Boldin simply outplayed Eric Wright and Joe Flacco found him. I don’t think the Browns were quite as bad as the numbers indicate; just that one matchup was.
The Bengals, on the other hand, have a terrible passing attack and will likely start trending more and more towards the run. Look at Carson Palmer’s numbers the last two weeks:
- Week 2: 167 yards, 0 TDs (v Baltimore)
- Week 3: 195 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs (v Carolina)
That is putrid. And keep in mind, the Panthers had been giving up multiple TD passes to everyone. And the one passing TD was to Cedric Benson out of the backfield. Where are OchoCinco and T.O.?
If it weren’t for some garbage time yards in Week 1 when the Patriots game was already decided, Palmer’s numbers would look even worse than they do. This guy is basically Trent Dilfer now. If he couldn’t do anything against Carolina, who do you trust him against?
Carson Palmer fantasy football Week 4 projection: 175 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 4:
- Eli Manning struggled to get the ball to his receivers in Week 3 against a Tennessee pass defense that is nothing special. I like him still this season, but a matchup with the Bears may not be ideal.
- Joe Flacco finally got in sync with Anquan Boldin in Week 3. Unfortunately, the Ravens now face the Steelers. Anyone else foresee a 9-6 game?
- There are a bunch of other QBs like Alex Smith and David Garrard that you should sit, but do you need me to tell you that?
Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em RB: Peyton Hillis, CLE (vs Cincinnati)
How can you not take notice of Peyton Hillis after what he did in Week 3? Against the always stout Ravens’ run defense, Hillis rumbled for 144 yards and a TD on 22 carries. He also added 36 yards on 7 receptions.
Yes, these were the type of numbers we were expecting from Jerome Harrison. And yes, this is me publicly eating crow for being so high on Harrison before the season and during Weeks 1 and 2. But stubbornness gets you nowhere in fantasy football. I watched a lot of the Browns-Ravens game and Hillis was the second-best player on the field (after Anquan Boldin).
One of the reasons so many people were high on Harrison is that the Browns have a solid O-Line and will be able to run on people this year. Cincinnati is very good against the pass, but did give up a decent YPC average in Week 3. With no passing game to speak of, Cleveland will keep riding Hillis.
Peyton Hillis fantasy football Week 4 projection: 105 yards rushing, TD, 5 receptions, 30 yards
Other start ‘em RBs for Week 4:
- Too many people are too worried about Michael Turner. Folks, when he is healthy, you start him. San Francisco is supposed to have a good run defense, but I haven’t really seen it yet. Turner should have a strong day.
- I know that you’re getting very worried about DeAngelo Williams right now…but this is not the week to sit him. New Orleans gives up rushing yards and lots of fantasy points to opposing runners. If I hadn’t already typed out the Hillis recommendation above, I would switch it to DAW. Keep him in your lineups.
- Ahmad Bradshaw keeps on producing. The fumbles and brain farts won’t help, but the Giants have no one else and Bradshaw, based on his production, is inching into top-20 RB territory.
- Well, Darren McFadden just keeps producing. So keep starting him.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em RB: Jahvid Best, DET (at Green Bay)
The Packers play the run well, which makes this a tough matchup for Best. Add to that the fact that he struggled against a good run D in Week 3, plus had to leave the game with an injury, and it equals a less than optimal week for Best owners.
Don’t be completely blinded by the five TDs he has so far this season. He scored two on goalline carries in Week 1, then exploded in Week 2 against an Eagles defense that has not been great this year. He’s been good, don’t get me wrong…but probably not quite as good as his numbers suggest.
Exercise caution with Best this season and remember that he is just a rookie, and this may be one of those weeks when you go with an alternative.
Jahvid Best fantasy football Week 4 projection: 55 yards, 0 TDs, 3 receptions, 30 yards
Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 4:
- Until further notice, Jerome Harrison has to be on your bench. Hillis is going to be the guy, at least for now, in Cleveland.
- BenJarvus Green-Ellis stepped up for New England this week after Fred Taylor got hurt. Once again, let me reiterate: stay away from the New England backfield. It’s just too much of a crapshoot.
- Consider Ray Rice’s automatic position in your lineup this week. You know that I say always play your stars, but this might an exception. Pittsburgh’s run D is ferocious and Rice has yet to get into the endzone this year. He also had to leave the Week 3 game early, so he could be a bit dinged up. Don’t sit him unless you have some really good alternatives. If you are so blessed, it’s something to think about about.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em WR: Santana Moss, WAS (at Philadelphia)
Santana Moss is entering must-start territory now that he and Donovan McNabb have found some rhythm together. Moss had 16 catches coming into Week 2 and was one of the most targeted WRs in the league. In Week 3, he continued to be a favorite of Donovan McNabb and finally got into the endzone.
This week, the Redskins head into Philadelphia, which marks the return of Donovan McNabb to his old city. I have a feeling McNabb is going to want to throw a few of his patented deep balls and remind the Eagles what they are missing. Those deep balls will likely go to Moss. I’ll never guarantee a TD for anyone…but I feel really strongly that Moss gets into the endzone at least once this week.
Santana Moss fantasy football Week 4 projection: 6 receptions, 115 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em WRs for Week 4:
- Kevin Walter got into the endzone again. That’s three weeks in a row. You have to respect that.
- Too many people are asking me about Steve Smith of the Giants. I play him every week. He hasn’t gotten into the endzone this year, but he had 9 catches for 103 yards last week. He’s Eli Manning’s favorite target.
- Jeremy Maclin scored again this week..twice. Michael Vick keeps looking to him. You know DeSean Jackson is a must-start, but it’s time that Maclin got some respect too. This is a solid top 30 WR.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em WR: Derrick Mason and TJ Houshmandzadeh, BAL (at Pittsburgh)
How much do I dislike these two this week and moving forward? Let me count the ways…
- First off there is the matchup. Baltimore plays Pittsburgh, which means that scoring opportunities will be limited.
- Secondly, there is the lack of production so far this year. Mason scored in Week 2, but otherwise neither of these two has done much of anything yet this year.
- Thirdly, there is the emergence of Anquan Boldin in Week 3. He caught 3 TDs, a couple of which Flacco just launched blindly in his direction. I think Flacco continues going to to Boldin.
- Fourth, there is the fact that Ray Rice and Todd Heap are above Mason and Housh in the Baltimore offensive pecking order.
Add all of this up…and you have a couple of guys that I’d sit on a regular basis.
Derrick Mason and TJ Houshmandzadeh fantasy football Week 4 projection (combined): 6 receptions, 60 yards, 0 TDs
Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 4:
- All 49ers WRs. This team absolutely cannot pass the ball. Stay away. Stay far away.
- It’s safe to stick a fork in Bernard Berrian. He only had two catches against Detroit, which was supposed to be his breakout game. H
- Strongly consider sitting Steve Smith (CAR) in Week 4 if you have good alternatives. The Panthers have a better matchup in Week 4 for their passing game (New Orleans) but it’s pretty clear that Jimmy Clausen is going struggle…a lot. That hurts everyone on the Carolina offense.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em TE: Vernon Davis, SF (at Altanta)
I already know that the Vernon Davis questions are coming this week, so I figured I’d issue this preemptive strike: start him.
Davis only had 3 catches in Week 3, and didn’t get into the endzone, but he had 12 catches in the two weeks prior and at least 70 receiving yards in both games. Unfortunately, the 49ers offense is just struggling right now and not offering Davis the same number of red zone opportunities that he got last year en route to 13 TD catches. While no one expected that number to be repeated, no one thinks he’ll only catch 2 (his amount in ’08) either.
The Falcons gave up 70+ yards and a TD to Jeremy Shockey in Week 3. With the 49ers desperate for a win, they’ll have to feed their best receiver. I think Davis steps it up and has his first big week of 2010.
Vernon Davis fantasy football Week 4 projection: 7 catches, 95 yards, TD
Other start ‘em TEs for Week 4:
- Zach Miller caught a TD in Week 3 and faces a Houston defense that will give up a lot through the air. He’s a solid start this week.
- Aaron Hernandez led the Patriots in catches and yards in Week 3 (6, 65). He plays a Miami defense that will give up some fantasy points to opposing TEs.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em TE: Todd Heap, BAL (at Pittsburgh)
Todd Heap has just four catches against the Steelers over the past two seasons. Granted, two of those went for touchdowns in one game last season, but I consider that more of a fluke. The overall lack of production is the trend.
Heap is having a nice bounce back year so far in 2010, but I don’t see Baltimore having many scoring opportunities against Pittsburgh. Plus, with Troy Polamalu roaming around out there, Heap might have one or two catches taken away by big hits.
Todd Heap fantasy football Week 4 projection: 3 receptions, 30 yards, 0 TDs
Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 4:
- Owen Daniels still isn’t quite back to his must-start self. I still say resist the urge to start him until he starts catching 5-6 passes again.
- Michael Vick clearly doesn’t have the same rapport with Brent Celek that Kevin Kolb did. Celek is not a must-start anymore, though I wouldn’t drop him.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em D/ST: Cincinnati Bengals (at Cleveland)
Much was made of the Bengals’ wide receiving corps in the offseason, but the defense is clearly the dominant unit on this team. Perhaps if the Bengals start running the ball more, the offense can catch up.
While there won’t be as many fumbles in Week 4 as there were against rookie Jimmy Clausen in Week 3, the Browns remain a one-dimensional offense. As long as the Bengals contain Peyton Hillis, they should have, at worst, a decent day.
Cincinnati Bengals fantasy football Week 4 projection: 14 or less points, 2 sacks, 2 TOs
Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 4:
- The Falcons are playing the 49ers. Right now, I shouldn’t need to say anything more.
- The Saints are playing the Panthers. Again, right now, I shouldn’t need to say anything more.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em D/ST: Miami Dolphins (vs New England)
I like the Dolphins defense this year, but the Patriots are putting up points against everyone. If the Jets and Bills couldn’t contain Tom Brady and the passing attack (at least from a fantasy perspective), then I doubt the Dolphins will either.
Miami Dolphins fantasy football Week 4 projection: 20 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 TO
Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 4:
- I think the Giants-Bears game will be high scoring. I would prefer not have either starting for me.
- The 49ers defense was supposed to be good this year. It’s not. Sit them. It’s probably okay to drop them at this point.
As always, the comment section awaits your questions. We’ll have the rankings and sleepers posted later this week, plus our regular live chats. Good luck everyone!
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* – Matt Ryan photo credit: Phil Skinner via Atlanta Journal Constituion